Demographic Forecasting

Market Outlook's demographic forecasts are built around a multi-dimensional segmentation framework that goes well beyond standard Census projections.

Here’s what that means in practice...

Segmentation Framework

Age	Generation	Life Stage	Income (2024$)	Race/Ethnicity
15 to 20	Gen Alpha (2011-2025)	Married Couple Families*	Under $25,000	White
21 to 24	Gen Z (1995-2010)	Married Couples, No Kids	$25,000 to $50,000	African-American
25 to 29	Gen Y (1980-1994)	Single Parents	$50,000 to $75,000	Asian-American
30 to 34	Gen X (1965-1979)	Singles	$75,000 to $100,000	Hispanic
35 to 39	Trailing Boomer (1956-1964)	Single Males**	$100,000 to $125,000
40 to 44	Leading Boomer (1946-1955)	Single Females**	$125,000 to $150,000
45 to 49	Traditional (1936-1945)		$150,000 to $200,000
50 to 54	Mature (1919-1935)		$200,000 to $250,000
55 to 59	Lost (Pre-1919)		$250,000 to $300,000
60 to 64			$300,000 Plus
65 to 69
70 to 74
75+
* Married Couples estimates and forecasts include same-sex couples starting in 2013. ** Singles by gender not available for race/ethnicity classifications.

Our forecasts segment the U.S. household population across five dimensions simultaneously: age cohort, generation, life stage, household income, and race/ethnicity. This cross-tabulation capability, tracking how all five dimensions interact and evolve over time, is the core of our demographic forecasting, and the foundation of many of our planning applications.

Income Distribution

Our household income forecasts are built from the ground up using proprietary techniques applied to Census income distribution data. While the Census tracks income distributions, it does not forecast them. Market Outlook does, producing projections segmented by age, generation, life stage, and race/ethnicity in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars through $300,000 and above, enabling precise sizing of affluent market segments across demographic groups.

Forecast Horizons

Our population projections extend to 2060, providing a long-range view of how the size and composition of the U.S. population will shift across age groups, generations, and race/ethnicity. Household and income distribution forecasts extend to 2040, a planning horizon that covers the full career arc of Gen Z and the retirement years of the leading edge of Millennials.

Generation Definitions

Market Outlook tracks nine generations from the Lost Generation through Gen Alpha, in five-year age cohorts. Because generation definitions vary across organizations, each defined by different birth year boundaries, we map our age cohort data to whatever generational definitions your company uses internally. We provide detailed cross-generation comparisons of household income, buying power, life stage composition, and race/ethnicity to help clients understand how each generation differs from its predecessors as it moves through key life stages.